Weekly Space Weather Highlights

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
12 - 18 February 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels on 13-18 Feb and low levels on
12 Feb. The strongest flare of the period was a C1 from Region 2699
(S07, L=165, class/area Dai/240 on 10 Feb) at 12/0135 UTC. The event
produced an associated asymmetric halo signature first observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 12/0125 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the
event suggested arrival of the CME at Earth on 15 Feb. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels 12-16 Feb. An increase to moderate levels on 17
Feb and to high levels on 18 Feb was observed in response influence
from a negative polarity CH HSS. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Quiet
conditions were observed on 12-14 Feb. On 15 Feb, arrival of the 12
Feb CME produced only one isolated period of active during the day.
Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 15 nT around
16/0530 UTC while Bz remained mostly positive. Solar wind speeds
were relatively slow, between 300-400 km/s through the event. Active
levels were reached again on 17 and 18 Feb in response to influence
from a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds continued to
increase over the two days to a peak of about 600 km/s late on 18

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 February - 17 March 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low through the outlook

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels from CH
HSS influence are expected from 19-25 Feb. A transition back to
normal levels is expected from 26 Feb to 17 Mar. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm conditions. Influence from a negative polarity CH
HSS is expected to produce isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming
on 19 Feb. A decrease to quiet to active levels by 20 Feb and quiet
to unsettled levels over 21-23 Feb is expected as influence from the
CH HSS slowly wanes. Quiet to unsettled levels are again expected on
04 Mar and 15 March, with quiet to active levels expected on 14 Mar
and 16-17 Mar, as multiple, recurrent CH HSSs are anticipated to
become geoeffective. The remainder of the outlook period is expected
to observe quiet conditions.